Best Betfair trading strategy for Tennis Trading | Peter Webb | Bet Angel

so bet angel contains a whole variety of
different tools that allow you to maximize your potential within the
market one of the reasons that we do that is that there are many strategies
that you can deploy into a market and your role as a trader is to join up the
strategy with the market that’s how you profit in the long term there are lots
of tools that do functions that you may not be aware of for example if we look
at the dutching tool everybody knows the dutching is a great way of covering
large sections of the field however did you know that there’s a brilliant
strategy that you can do in tennis that also involves the dutching tool if
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as they’re released so touching on tennis sounds completely bizarre if you
think about it dutching is a great way of covering a very large number of
runners by a very large number you have a very large field the outcome of an
event is uncertain so you use dutching to cover a number of selections that way
you guarantee that you get a result if any of those selections go on to win
however when we created the bet angel dutching tool we did a couple of
interesting little things to it and that allows you to use the dutching tool in
small fields as well it sounds a little bit bizarre I mean why would you touch a
tennis match you know you’ve got player a wins or player B wins so you know you
either Dutch one or both of them and you can’t touch both of them so why would
you touch one why don’t you just place a back bet into a normal trade well what
I’m going to explain in this video is a clever little tactic that you can use on
tennis trading that uses the dutching tool but also it beautifully describes
what your objective is when trading and also how you should approach trading
especially a sport like tennis when you do pre off racing one of the problems
that you have is the markets all over the place you know suddenly it’s being
backed then it’s being laid and then it goes in it goes out it’s all over the
place there’s no certainty it’s a mark
it’s driven by pure emotion and you know all of the dynamics behind that market
creates a lot of uncertainty nobody knows exactly what the price should be
so people are constantly trying to work out what it is however in a tennis match
if a player starts at a price over here you know roughly where it’s going to be
if something occurs within that match and you also know that you know if there
a break up or set up or they’ve got a mini break within a game you can get a
good estimate of roughly where the price is going to be so when you look at
Bettinger what we’ve done is we’ve created the perfect tennis trading tool
which is tennis trader because not only will it bring in live scores to you a
very very high speed but we’ll also look at the match and then give you a
projection of where it thinks the price should be and that will allow you to
perfectly encapsulate your opening position your closing position and you
can ask for a certain type of trade and work out what the payoff is and what you
need to do to achieve that payoff so you’ve got everything right in front of
you there so rather than try and talk you through that let me give you a
practical example so I wanted to talk you through a very simple easy to
understand strategy that you can use on tennis that really sort of quite
appropriately it measures your risk allows you to not over stake and
pinpoint an exact exit point within the market and so on so let me describe what
I’m going to do here so we’re on betangel obviously and I’ve gone along
to the dutching tab here and I’ve also fired up tennis trader so if you click
on the tennis ball it will fire up tennis trader and then we can start to
scope out our particular trade so the first thing we need to do is set the
match type so the play is taking place in Rome at the moment so it is a
three-set match where the tiebreak is allowed in the last set so we have set
it up and told it what the match is going to be like when we click on
calibrate and then Bettinger will adjust the odds
to match those at the market and it will work out all of the detail that we need
from there so what I’m going to do now is click on the set matrix and if I just
resize this slightly so that we can see the whole of the set matrix in fact what
I may do is lift this up because we don’t need to click on any icons over
there a moment you can pin it as well which is what I’ve done but what this is
doing is its laying out a plot of basically where the odds are likely to
go within the match now if one of these players slips up and injures his ankle
the odds are not going to get here but based upon the way the market is set up
what the market is telling us and everything that’s been discounted into
the market if that remains the same then this is where the odds will be given
certain score lines so we don’t know at this moment in time who’s serving first
but we’re assuming that’s Novak Djokovic is serving first if you want to change
that you can change the server up here and then that will modify everything
that goes from there so you can see we’ve put del Pacho as surfing first and
then we can sort of plot out what happens from here so it’s null nil to
start the match it’s 114 when we first look at the match and as a consequence
as the match progresses then this medium line here means that the match is tied
so this would be one nil to del potro this would be a break of serve goes in
Djokovic is way and then you can see so this is the level scores across the
entire match this would be del Potro serving and winning his game and then
the match would bounce along this line if that is how the match went on that
particular occasion but if we changed the server to Djokovic then obviously
the match would bounce along this line here
so we’re saying Djokovic wins del Potro Djokovic del Potro Djokovic del Potro
but then of course you know one of them would get a break and then it would
deviate from that line there you go you understand how the set
matrix works now but what we have to do here is decide what an exit point we’re
going to have within the market and what we’re going to do so let us say for
example that we expect the price on del potro to drift at some point because
djokovic is going to get a break up at some particular point what I’m going to
do is I’m going to back both of these and if I just untick that what I’m
actually going to do with del potro is put him into the margin maker so if we
use a stake of 100 s with this particular position then basically if we
put one percent margin in which is what you can see here this is the margin
maker this is the margin that we’re putting into the market if we ask for
one percent gain on del potro we’re basically saying 400 pound snake we get
one pound 18 back that’s not a huge return really is it but what the margin
maker does is it says well okay well poncho starting at odds of seven point
eight he needs to reach odds of nine for us to get out one percent so where would
he reach odds at nine so if we look at the number below here you’ve got the
odds above they’re going to be djokovic you can see there in yellow and then
we’ve got the del potro odds below so we can basically say if Djokovic is serving
any wins this first game then you’ll probably get that one percent it’s very
very likely that that would occur because if we look at the game matrix
you can do the same thing on the game matrix and you can see all of the
instances where del potro would reach odds of nine so you can you can mix and
match and see where things are from there and also if you want to look
further on in the match then it’s possible for you to alter the scores the
games the sets the points to examine each of those particular points within
detail so of course you know 1% return we’d have to get this right ninety
percent of the time or something it would be quite quite large so let’s ask
for ten percent margin on del potro so this indicates that his price needs to
get to a forty four so you can see what we’re saying here is
if we think that the price on del potro is going to drifts to 44 it’s not going
to be in that first set you would have to be after that first set would be in
set two so what you’re basically saying as Djokovic would have to be at a
certain level so let’s actually give Djokovic the first-century we’re going
here and we’re just going to say Djokovic is our set up let’s have a look
at what the odds would be so basically we’re saying
Djokovic would be a set and probably a break up in order for it to hit 44 so
you can see the opportunities to make money on Del Potro is a bit limited but
let’s flip it the other way around let’s go and reset this and say Djokovic
were in the first set we’ve taken the set away from Djokovic and let’s flip it
round to Djokovic so here we’re saying you know if we ask
for 10 percent margin we’d get about 11 pound out of the hundred we’re saying
that his odds needs drifts a 1.3 so what would cause his odds to drift 1.3 well
if we look at this you’re basically saying he just needs to go a break down
and that is how the odds would get matched at one point 3 so we would go
into this market we would stake 14 pounds 29 on del potro and the other bet
would sit in the market with 85 pounds at one point 3 so our total risk on this
particular trade is 14 pounds and our total return is 11 pound 43 so it’s sort
of not quite 2 to 1 if you if you didn’t want that if you wanted to try and
equalize this we could sort of say well what would actually make that 2 to 1 so
you can actually see here if we go for a 12 percent margin maker you can see that
we’re risking 14 pounds on our original stake when it goes into the market and
we’ll get that return across both of them 14 pounds 35 so basically saying is
Djokovic going to drift to 1.3 for 50% of the time if you’ve broken down a
complicated situation with in tennis with multiple score lines into a very
very simple trading judgment your basic he’s saying I’m going to steak 14-pound
66 my potential return is going to be 14 pound whoever goes on to win and we
needs to Djokovic to reach 134 house Djokovic gonna reach 134 well it’s gonna
be he’s gonna be a breakup it’s 2-1 or higher in the first set or later so that
would be what completes your trade if I just pull up the unmatched bets area
here and actually put this trade into the market if I just click on place bets
we’re doing this before the match has started basically if I click on place
bets and it will place the bet into the market you can see that our liability is
about 14 but I returned it so it’s about 15 and now returns about 14 so ever so
slightly out there because of the spreads there’s no reason why you
couldn’t ask for a price rather than taking one but basically what we’re
saying is we’re risking 14 pounds for a 14 pound return more or less and you can
obviously adjust the margin to however you wish but basically what you’re
actually doing here is you’re framing the trade from a money management
perspective very very clearly you’re saying how much you’re going to risk and
how much you’re going to return so your focus then shifts to the market to
basically say and is that going to happen and we know from tennis trader
when that’s likely to happen it could be at this particular point in the market
or maybe a break occurs very early on and then it looks like it’s going to
hold a serve and they will occur at some point between those two games or it
could occur at any points within that particular market now the thing to bear
in mind is they’re playing on clay so you’d have to say you know does Del
Potro stand a chance of breaking Djokovic on clay and when is that likely
to occur what’s his game style has he likely to play the match and things like
that so you have to take that into account at
all times you owe your focus shifts from a money management trade perspective to
focusing on the end of an individual match between these two players but it’s
a really really neat way of trading tennis because you’re shifting your
focus to the actual match itself and you don’t have to take this match before
them they actually Jennifer take this position before the match starts you
could take this position as the match is underway but basically what we’ve done
is we’ve staked some money on Del Potro we haven’t staked any money on Djokovic
we’ve put that in at a higher price in the market for that to get matched in
play so we actually have to remember to actually click the key ball position
here the bet status because this will keep the bet which means that we’ve
despite the fact that we’ve placed this bet before they offer it we’ll carry it
over to the in play period now obviously you don’t need to do that if you’re
doing it in play but the same sort of principles apply what you’re saying is
this is my risk this is my reward this is how it’s going to happen and then as
a trader you make this judgment you say is it going to happen how’s this going
to happen but also you know it may not happen in this particular match but it
may happen in the next one and you don’t necessarily have to just do this trade
once you could do it twice you could do it as many times as you like so all of
those things come into play when you do this type of trade as well but
essentially what you’re doing here is you’re putting a little bit of science
thought into the trade that you’re going to do specifically with the intention of
making a judgment on the match which is effectively what you you’re trying to do
trying to shift your skill to that as opposed to just making a random judgment
or thinking that something may or may not happen you’re actually making a pre
judgment on here and you’re managing your risk and reward which is
essentially you know the number one trick when you’re actively trading so
yeah using a combination of this particular screen and the tennis trader
tool this will give you a great place to pitch your perfect trade when you’re
trading tennis so when I did this video last night I
was sort of picking on the match that I thought may present a good illustration
of what we’re talking about and that’s exactly what happened it was a very
interesting match Novak Djokovic won out eventually
but del Potro gave him a right run for his money and in fact it looked at one
point as though Djokovic may actually be eliminated from the tournament but he
managed to turn it around and this is one of the great wonders of tennis is
that it doesn’t follow a straight line it doesn’t go like Djokovic is this
price and therefore it goes to 101 there are many many paths that can take him to
winning the match and basically the odds reflect that so the odds fly around all
over the places and then eventually the match engine ends it’s not impossible
but it’s sort of quite rare for a match to for somebody to dominate the match
from start to finish it does happen obviously but necessarily typically the
path you view you’re looking for the path that the match will follow to that
conclusion and there are many parts so the idea of tennis trade and why we’ve
set out things like the set matrix is that you can plot all of those different
paths and show the different parts in the way that the match could go in the
odds that they will reach a certain points within that particular match but
a great little match very entertaining and it provided a pretty good trading
opportunity as well so let’s bring up the graph because I’ve collected data
from the match and then I use that to analyze where the key points were within
the match and if that gives me additional knowledge that I can use
going forward you can do the same on betangel as well incidentally but what
we’re looking at here if I bring up the graphic is basically along the bottom
hands along the horizontal axis you’ve basically got the score within the match
and in the vertical axis are the odds what we’ve done is we’ve capped the odds
at two because they obviously went to much much higher prices when it looked
like Del Potro was gonna win the match but obviously Djokovic turned it around
and it went on to win but so that we could actually look at the data properly
and not distort the graph we basically capped it at two so that we can discuss
it in some depth so let’s have a look at what happened within that particular
match while Djokovic was serving first and he won his server
game and then del Potro won his service game and it sort of went on sir for a
little while until we got to three games all and when we got to three games all
Djokovic was serving to go for three there was a bit of a battle going on
within that particular match within that particular game I should say and then
del Potro had the breakthrough so at that particular point the odds went out
to about sort of 140 ish in the mid 140s 10 Australia was saying three four in
the first sets to Del Potro it’d be 141 so we’re about on the money there now
there can be little variances when you look at the odds because there’s certain
moments when momentum is with one player or the other or that the market is
beginning to discount one thing render it’s not unusual to see the market
deviate from a model because somebody somewhere has seen something that makes
them think that the momentum is with one player or there’s something that is
favoring one player so it’s not unusual to see a deviate from there so tennis
trader is a good guide to where the price should be doesn’t necessarily mean
it will be absolutely spot-on and also because we represent it in odds I often
suggest that you look at it in terms of probability because of one percent move
in probability can be quite different shorter prices than it is at larger
prices so always bear that in mind but yeah it went three four then
Djokovic held on to his serve and then it was 5-4 to Del Potro and because he’s
only one game away basically from potentially winning this set then you’ll
tend to find that the odds go even more in his favor so 10 Australia was saying
that the odds would be 1.5 and if we actually look at that particular moment
in time when we’re looking for the match to go perhaps to that extra set you can
see that the odds bouncing around all over the place and
that is because there were many breaks going on in that absolutely critical
game towards the end of that particular set but when Del Potro actually won that
particular set then the market reset itself to about mid 1 60s and if you
look back at the start of the video you can see the tennis trader was looking at
the odds and indicating that they should be about 164 so about mid 1 60s so you
can see that it’s successfully plotted out where all of
those key points were within the game but of course you know their little
movement in odds that you see are basically when it’s going like sort of
love 30 30 or advantage juice advantage juice in either direction
that’s what creates that bit within tennis so you have to be careful about
where you want to take your positions or where you want to take them out but the
advantage you’re putting a closing position in the market ahead of where
the odds are likely to be is that you’re much more likely to get matched you
don’t have to wait and see what the market says the odds are you can
actually pitch it at about the level where you think there’s a sensible exit
point within the market from there but you can basically see how the match
panned out from there the odds drifted out when it looked like Djokovic was in
trouble and then he managed to pull it around in the second set he ended up
winning the second set a little bit easier or it looked like he was gonna
win it easier because he was 5 2 up at one point but then now del Potro came
storming back in and took it to tiebreak so you can see the odds go flying out
again there I can’t remember exactly what the odds were on del portillo 9 or
10 perhaps the sorry on Djokovic they were probably 9 or 10 at that point
because for Del Potro looking like he was about to win the second set they
would have come in to about 110 115 or somewhere around there so you just do
the inverse but you can see the odds disappear off the top of the chart out
point because it looked like Djokovic was going to lose but then of course he
did win the second set and then he the odds came crashing right back in again
there was a bit of a tussle in that third set but eventually turned it
around and the odds came crashing back in again so the important thing you know
we’ve just given you a narrative of something that you can see on the screen
but the reason that I’m describing it for you like this is to basically give
you a an idea of how the odds are moving around and how that’s being reflected
within the market but also think about it you know we dish did one trade where
we basically put the position before the match had started now always the risk
with doing that is you don’t know what’s happening in the underlying match itself
so very often it makes sense to have eyes on a match so that you can get an
interpretation of what you’re looking at and how that’s
influence where the match is going to go from there but if you look at the key
points within the market we open a position at the start of the market we
could have opened a position at the start of that second set
when Djokovic came storming back into the match and then at the beginning of
that last set so in fact they were looking really at four key entry points
within that particular match so you could have repeated this trade at least
four times and had reasonable margin out of it and when you look at how he
balanced the profit against the potential liability at the beginning of
this video that shows you that while we were playing with a 50/50 chance at the
beginning of the video what we were effectively doing is not playing with
those odds at all because we could actually repeat the trade more than once
now you could decide that once you’ve done that first trade you just reinvest
the money back into the market or you could actually work with the same amount
again but with reduced liability because you’ve got profit in the market when
this is one of the keys with tennis trading is that you can actually do that
obviously the difficulty of the tennis trading is you have to sit there and
watch the map so it could go on for hours if if you necessarily want to so
I’m happy to trade tennis but it depends what sports are on which particular time
I tend to pick whatever I think is going to work particularly well at that
particular moment in time so if a tennis match goes on for three hours imagine
how many horse races I could do and that could be a couple of football matches so
that’s one of the judgments you have to make but when there’s nothing else on or
it fits nicely into whatever time schedule that I’m trading at that
particular moment in time I’ll often turn my hands it’s tennis simply because
I understand the market pretty well and it’s very clearly defined market in
terms of trading expectancy you can pretty much frame how the markets likely
to trade and what you want to do before the match has even started
now as the match is underway you may want to reappraise some of those
elements but typically what you do when the match is underway is you’ve got the
opportunity to strike more than once so you can either increase the profit
you’ve got or reduce the potential liability on the stake that you’re using
whichever way you look at it that obviously has a positive outcome on your
trading expectancy over the course of the entire event whichever way you
choose to trade it but anyhow there is a very useful and interesting way of
looking at a tennis market and also interesting way of executing a trade on
a tennis market using betangel you

16 thoughts on “Best Betfair trading strategy for Tennis Trading | Peter Webb | Bet Angel

  1. So according to your matrix if Del Potro won the 1st set 7-5 Djokovics price would be 1.64. …thats ok, but if Del Potro won 6-0 Djokovics price would again be 1.64 ……that deserves a big LOL

  2. Hi Peter, so pre match at 1.14 Djokovic was about 87% chance of winning the match, at 3-4 after just losing his serve he was 1.42 and about 70% chance of winning the match. If pre match odds are generally efficient then is there an edge in me taking the higher price when he is behind?

  3. Do you have to pay income tax on your profits because it is gambling and you don’t pay tax on gambling winnings

  4. Peter, could you reduce or make transluscent the bet angel logo? sometimes gets in way of stuff onscreen

  5. Tried this recently and it went well on match 1 which was nicely matched for 10% margin, Match 2, well it was going completely pear shaped so I decided to cut my losses only for my player to dig herself out of a massive hole and come back to win, so on match 3 I didn't trade out and player went and lost. Your video has made a couple of points that I can look at so will have a go at that tomorrow. I am still on small stakes so it's fine I am still learning.

  6. Peter i cant inplay or live bet cos im an australia id it possible to lay a selection lets say i.lsy somthing at 3 bucks can i then put anthor bet in at say 4 bucks for a back bet in play then at a latter stage somone macth me in play is this possible tryed asking betfair help.they gave me a complete diffrent answer to what i was asking

  7. Hi Peter, great video. Just wanted to know if you could still use this type of trade if say you're in a country like Australia where there is no in play trading, if I place the bet pregame would betfair allow me to keep the unmatched bet, I know if yes I couldn't trade out while the game was on.

  8. I dabble in tennis trading (badly) and find the hardest skill is in the execution of exit points/strategy. If I placed a trade that was in essence laying Djokovic at 1.14 and then watched the price move to 1.40 I'd have a whole new set of decisions to make at that point. Either green up, do nothing, move all the green to Djokovic (still the fave at this point) or reduce liability on Djokovic and leave all the green on Delpo. The temptation (for me anyway) is almost always to try and let the trade run but reduce the liability. In this case I imagine I would have left all of the green on Delpo and £0 on Djok. This would have been a good move here as I could have then greened up at the end of set 1 for a bigger profit. However this is not always the case and often I find I end up making the correct call on the entry point only to mess up the exit and end up with very little. When I enter a trade and it goes against me I am pretty disciplined at exiting for the loss that I allowed for (in this example if Djok got the first break say).

    My second issue arises when I have a profit from set 1 but then the temptation is to leverage that later on and this can also cause what was a good position to become a small win (or break even). The obvious issue here is that if I'm wrong on say 50% of my initial trades and take the loss then I need to take larger profits on the other 50%. Whilst I may have been able to do this at a point in time during the match, due to bad exit strategies or leveraging earlier profits this ends up not being the case.

    I think it's something psychological for me and probably down to greed (ie chasing bigger wins and not wanting to green up a position that may eventually be more profitable). Suppose I just wanted to put this out there and see if anybody else has similar issues and finds picking good entry points only 50% (or less) of the battle.

  9. Ok, every things looks good but…
    Is’nt simples way to lay Djokovic at 1.14 and take this same risk and profit if you match 1.34?

  10. i dont understand english well, but 1.34 and 7.8 are % 1.34 74% and 7,8 12 74+12 86 and are not 100×100. on which spot of video do you speak about find this odds?

  11. Hi Peter. I have not been able to make these profitgraf you show in tennis. I hope you will make a video, where you show how to make them. Down in every details. From the start to the end. I have tryed to export data from Betangle but with no succes.

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